Interest Rate Cut?

A sluggish economy and a spike in foreclosures suggest an interest-rate cut is in order, but a weak currency and creeping inflation suggest a rate hike is in order (rate increases make a currency more attractive vis-à-vis other currencies). What is the Federal Reserve to do?

Clues will be forthcoming in the Fed's Beige Book, to be released on Wednesday. It will likely prove that the Fed's greater concern is inflation, but that could easily change if Friday's consumer price index shows consumer prices rising at an intolerable rate.

Either way, borrowers can expect a spike in rate volatility. Gaming interest rates – an already difficult endeavor – will become that much more difficult in coming weeks. Bankrate.com's survey showed that mortgage rates increased across the board through most of last week, but the survey was released before Friday's employment report, which could just as easily drop rates this week.

So what's the longer-term rate trend that's likely to emerge? Unfortunately, it's impossible to tell at this point because of the schizophrenia of recent economic data releases.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX United
847.337.7090
DeerfieldsAgent.com

Rates up or Down?

Will the recent cut in the fed funds rate translate into lower mortgage rates? The answer is an equivocal yes and no. It's possible we'll see lower rates on some adjustable rate mortgages, but it's no slam-dunk. ARMs are more closely linked to the fed funds rate than fixed-rate mortgages, to be sure, but have only fallen about half a percentage point since September. ARMs played a leading role in the recent foreclosure fiasco, which has kept their rates higher than what would normally be expected.

Fixed-rate mortgages, on the other hand, are driven by rates on 10-year treasury notes. Rates on a 30-year fixed mortgage are typically 1.5 percentage points higher than the rate on the 10-year Treasury note, but because of increased risk perception – brought on by higher foreclosure rates and a stagnating housing market – that premium has expanded to 2.3 percentage points.

The 10-year Treasury note rate, in turn, is driven by inflation expectations. On that front, rising inflation concerns are pushing 10-year treasury rates higher.
So what's the outlook for mortgage rates? The focus is shifting back to inflation, which means rates are unlikely to go much lower. But while inflation could pressure 10-year treasury rates, a narrowing risk premium could offset the impact on fixed-rate mortgages. In other words, odds favor rates moving higher, but not much higher, so anyone sitting on the sidelines waiting for a drastic improvement is likely waiting in vain.

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX United
847.337.7090
DeerfieldsAgent.com

Rising Interest Rates

Efficient markets are synonymous with confidence and liquidity – the result of investors' appetite to underwrite risk and savers' appetite to provide leverage to investors who want to underwrite risk. As risk appetite increases, liquidity follows, producing an increase in overall confidence.

Perhaps higher interest rates could increase both liquidity and confidence. Higher rates would strengthen the U.S. dollar – which has been in a free fall the past two years – and, therefore, strengthen foreign confidence in the U.S. economy. Walter Bagehot, a 19th century British economist, noted as much 140 years ago when he called a seizing of internal markets "a domestic drain” and the flight of capital abroad "an external drain." Bagehot argued that raising interest rates restores foreign confidence and makes domestic banks more willing to lend.

But would higher rates further ravish the housing market? Interest rates exert influence on home prices, to be sure, but the relationship is surprisingly tenuous. In 1980, the prime 30-year fix-rate mortgage averaged 13.7%, rising to 16.1% in 1982. Home prices during that period tumbled over 20%. From 1984 through the present, mortgage rates have steadily trended lower, but in 1989 the housing market endured a major 15% correction. Of course, it's enduring another correction today on relatively low rates.

At this stage in the game, more willing lenders are more important to reviving the housing market than marginally lower interest rates. After all, what good is cheap money if no one is willing to lend it?

Eric P. Egeland
RE/MAX United
847.337.7090
DeerfieldsAgent.com